Tutorial T5 (Half day – morning)
Infrastructure planning under uncertainty: flexibility, resilience and multi-energy systems application
Organizers:
- Mathaios Panteli, The University of Manchester, mathaios.panteli@manchester.ac.uk
- Eduardo Alejandro Martínez Ceseña, The University of Manchester, alex.martinezcesena@manchester.ac.uk
- Rodrigo Moreno, Universidad de Chile and Imperial College London, rmorenovieyra@ing.uchile.cl,
- Pierluigi Mancarella, The University of Manchester and The University of Melbourne, p.mancarella@manchester.ac.uk
Abstract:
Traditional investment planning practices are becoming less effective in the energy sector as uncertainties increase due to the integration of renewable energies and low carbon technologies (e.g., electric vehicles), and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events due to climate change (e.g., droughts, earthquakes, etc.). To tackle these challenges, new tools that properly capture uncertainty and extreme events are required to develop more resilient and adaptive energy systems by capitalizing on emerging smart solutions based on active network management and different energy vectors (e.g., electricity, heat, gas and water). This tutorial provides an overview of recently developed state-of-the-art investment planning tools which explicitly address uncertainty (e.g., decision and real options theory) related to highly uncertain system evolution and low probability high impact events. Real world studies from international research projects are used to demonstrate the tools with distribution and transmission networks, community multi-energy systems, and integrated water-energy mega systems.
Structure:
| 08:30-09:00 | Registration |
| 09:00-10:30 | Infrastructure planning under uncertainty – The different levels of uncertainty – Decision theory, robust and flexible decisions – New stochastic programming approaches Infrastructure planning considering uncertain extreme events – Differences between reliability and resilience – Metrics: The resilience trapezoid – Tools: Probabilistic impact assessment and optimization via simulation – Novel probabilistic operational and planning methods |
| 10:30-10:45 | Coffee break |
| 10:45-12:15 | Future and already emerging energy systems Infrastructure planning for flexible and adaptive energy systems: – Smart distribution networks: Flexible active network management to accommodate emerging low carbon technologies – Building and community multi-energy systems: Use of multi-vector demand side flexibility to cope with uncertain demand growth, price variations and integration of low carbon technologies Infrastructure planning for resilient energy systems: – Resilient energy systems: development of optimal portfolios considering asset and non-asset solutions for stronger and smarter, more flexible transmission networks – Water-Energy-Environment Mega systems: Planning future integrated mega systems in developing countries in light of climate change threats |
| 12:15-12:30 | Questions and Answers |
Short Biographies:
Mathaios Panteli
Alejandro Martínez Ceseña
Rodrigo Moreno
